Title :
A Mathematical Study on the Spread of COVID-19 Considering Social Distancing and Rapid Assessment: The case of Jakarta, Indonesia
Author : DIPO ALDILA;  
Abstract : The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of rapid testing and social distancing in controlling the spread of COVID-19, particularly in the city of Jakarta, Indonesia. We formulate a modified suscepti- ble exposed infectious recovered compartmental model considering asymptomatic individuals. Rapid test- ing is intended to trace the existence of asymptomatic infected individuals among the population. This asymptomatic class is categorized into two subclasses: detected and undetected asymptomatic individu- als. Furthermore, the model considers the limitations of medical resources to treat an infected individual in a hospital. The model shows two types of equilibrium point: COVID-19 free and COVID-19 endemic. The COVID-19-free equilibrium point is locally and asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction num- ber (R0 ) is less than unity. In contrast, COVID-19-endemic equilibrium always exists when R0 > 1. The model can also show a backward bifurcation at R0 = 1 whenever the treatment saturation parameter, which describes the hospital capacity, is larger than a specific threshold. To justify the model parameters, we use the incidence data from the city of Jakarta, Indonesia. The data pertain to infected individuals who self-isolate in their homes and visit the hospital for further treatment. Our numerical experiments indicate that strict social distancing has the potential to succeed in reducing and delaying the time of an outbreak. However, if the strict social distancing policy is relaxed, a massive rapid-test intervention should be conducted to avoid a large-scale outbreak in the future.
Journal : Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
Issue :
Volume : 139
Journal Website : Check Jurnal
Article Link : Check Article
Publish Date : 2020-10-01